Disney’s long-awaited Moana 2 is gearing up for a blockbuster debut this Thanksgiving, with industry projections estimating a remarkable $100 million-plus opening over the five-day holiday period. According to long-lead tracking insights from Quorum, the film is forecasted to draw between $105 million and $115 million from Wednesday to Sunday, with Friday through Sunday alone expected to contribute an impressive $75 million to $82 million in revenue.
This anticipated performance marks a promising comeback for Disney, which has historically dominated the Thanksgiving box office with family-friendly animated releases. The first Moana film, which opened in 2016, amassed $82 million in its opening week and ultimately grossed $248.7 million domestically. Should Moana 2 meet these expectations, it would set a new high for Disney’s animated Thanksgiving releases, potentially outshining Frozen’s 2013 debut, which held a record $93.5 million five-day opening.
A Sequel With Momentum
Tracking services have reported that Moana 2 is set to surpass other holiday releases, such as Universal’s Wicked: Part One, projected to open between $67 million and $74 million, and Paramount’s Gladiator II, with estimated figures ranging from $42 million to $47 million. This promising forecast for Moana 2 is backed by Disney’s robust marketing campaign, which generated unprecedented online engagement. The first trailer alone, released across platforms like TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, clocked an astounding 178 million views within 24 hours, making it Disney’s most-viewed animated trailer to date. For comparison, Inside Out 2 garnered 157 million views, while Frozen 2 collected 116 million views within the same timeframe.
Familiar Faces and Fresh Musical Talent
One of the film’s most exciting aspects is the return of beloved characters Moana and Maui, voiced by Auli’i Cravalho and Dwayne Johnson. The sequel also introduces an impressive lineup of Grammy-winning and Grammy-nominated musical talent, including Abigail Barlow, Emily Bear, Opetaia Foa’i, and seasoned Disney composer Mark Mancina. Directed by Dave Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller, the film is expected to capture the charm and adventurous spirit that made the original a global phenomenon.
A Battle for IMAX Screens
This Thanksgiving, Moana 2 will be competing with two other highly anticipated releases, Wicked: Part One and Gladiator II, in the race for IMAX screens, promising an exciting showdown in theaters. The under-25 female demographic, known for its enthusiastic support of Disney’s Frozen franchise, appears especially captivated by Moana 2. While male audiences are reportedly less engaged at this stage, past performances of Disney titles show that this demographic often warms up as the release date nears, as seen with Inside Out 2, which eventually debuted at $154.2 million domestically.
If Moana 2 lives up to its predictions, Disney’s dominance of the Thanksgiving holiday box office could be well on its way to being reinstated, providing fans with another reason to celebrate the holiday season.
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